USD/CAD to move back to and probably below 1.30 next year – ING

The big event of the day is the Bank of Canada (BoC) Monetary Policy Announcement. In the view of economists at ING, the BoC should hike rates to 4%, which should certainly help the loonie. 

Canadian dollar deposits soon to start paying 4%

“The BoC is expected to deliver a hawkish hike in the policy rate to 4.00%. The BoC could hike a further 75 bps in the cycle compared to the further 44 bps currently priced into the Canadian OIS curve.”

“Presumably, interest in the 4%-yielding AAA Canadian dollar securities will only build from the reserve management community. It helps as well that as an energy exporter, Canada has been on the right side of this year's terms of trade shock.” 

“If equity markets can remain stable today, the hawkish BoC event risk could push USD/CAD down to 1.3500 on the day. But a sustained move below there requires a turn in the big dollar trend, which may not be a story until 2Q23.”

See – BoC Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, taking what is offered, a 75 bps hike