交易新闻

OPEC revised its forecast for global oil demand slightly downwards in its monthly report published yesterday due to the expected impact of US tariffs. It now expects an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day for both this year and next.

China's crude oil imports rose to 12.1 million barrels per day in March, according to data from the customs authority, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

In the wake of the sharp fall in oil prices, the time spreads, i.e. the price differentials along the forward curves, also narrowed significantly last week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The AUD/USD pair extends its winnings streak for the fifth trading day on Tuesday and revisits the monthly high of 0.6380.

GBP/USD has bounced strongly from the 50-day moving average, clearing a key pivot and approaching the top of its multi-month channel.

The exemption of some electronics products from the reciprocal US tariffs has provided some relief on the stock market, although expectations were quickly dampened again by the threat that the products would soon be subject to sectoral tariffs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

US Dollar (USD) could edge higher vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any advance is unlikely to break above 7.3350. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now.

Last week after business hours on Friday, Standard & Poor’s issued a downgrade of outlook on Hungary’s sovereign debt from stable to negative. S&P already rates the issuer at 'BBB-/A-3', the lowest within investment grade, which highlights the significance of a negative outlook from here.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.70/144.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Although the Norwegian inflation figures for March look a little better again after the significant upward surprise at the beginning of the year, Norges Bank is still likely to wait until June before lowering the key rate, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

The GBP/JPY pair rises to near 189.00 in Tuesday’s European session. The pair moves higher as the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens after the release of the upbeat United Kingdom (UK) employment data for three months ending February.

China’s preliminary trade data for metals, released yesterday, showed imports of unwrought Copper fell 1.4% YoY to 467kt in March, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), likely between 0.6270 and 0.6350. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Germany 5-y Note Auction declined to 2.06% from previous 2.44%

Where Trump is not willing to make concessions or give in, however, is on China. Here, the motto 'always more than you' seems to apply. The tariff spiral is in full swing, there are only a few exceptions, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction down to 4.638% from previous 4.679%

Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

The CPI print in Canada this afternoon can swing expectations for tomorrow’s Bank of Canada meeting, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Obviously, there is a learning curve for the US president when he continues to backpedal on tariffs. But the damage is done, trust is destroyed. Trump may call all these actions “dealmaking”, but in my view he underestimates two things, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

EUR/USD demonstrates a sideways trend near 1.1350 during European trading hours on Tuesday after a sharp run-up in the last few trading days. The major currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) gains a temporary cushion after remaining under pressure for over a week.