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EUR/SEK could hit 9.30 near term – Rabobank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank believes the scandie cross could reach 9.30 in the near term.

Key Quotes

“By cutting rates by a more than expected 50 bps in early July, the Riksbank succeeded in pushing EUR/SEK sharply higher. By the middle of this month, however, that move had been unwound. The recovery in the SEK came despite the warnings from Governor Ingves in the minutes of the July policy meeting that he would support another cut in the repo rate from its current level of 25 bps “if it were the case that monetary policy needed to be even more expansionary”.

“The outlook for Swedish growth will be heavily influenced by the economic performance of the broader Eurozone economy which continues to face clear difficulties in establishing growth. The policy decisions taken by the ECB will also have an impact on the Riksbank. After the ECB cut rates in June, it was notable that the SNB, Norges Bank and the Riksbank all took policy action”.

“While growth and deflation risks have ensured a dovish bias from the Riksbank this summer, policy makers remain concerned about the role of lower rates in fuelling the build up of household debt which has reached around 175% of disposable income”.

“On the assumption that household borrowing can be constrained, we expect that the Riksbank will retain its dovish tone and have revised up our EUR/SEK forecasts to reflect this. We see decent support near-term at the EUR/SEK 9.14 area and look for a gradual move higher towards the 9.30 area medium-term”.

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