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EUR/NOK potential downside ahead – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Thomas Harr, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the likeliness of further decline in the cross in the upcoming months.

Key Quotes

“Norwegian data has come out much stronger than expected over the past month”.

“We expect NB to raise its rate path at the monetary policy meeting on 18 September following better growth data and higher CPI inflation, which rose 2.6% y/y in July”.

“We forecast EUR/NOK will fall substantially over the coming three months as the economy continues to improve and the market prices higher Norwegian rates”.

“FX flows from NB suggest that stalled long NOK positioning has been cleared out opening the door for further NOK gains”.

“Medium to long term, NOK appreciation is likely to be more gradual, as falling oil investment weigh on sentiment. Hence, we do not expect EUR/NOK to reach the 2012 low of 7.25 for a very long time”.

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FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that EUR/USD is trading only 20 pips above its year low on Tuesday, with the Eurozone Current Account data hardly affecting the pair.
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Session Recap: GBP lags in quiet trade on UK CPI miss

The USD was on demand Tuesday European session, climbing across the board with the main exception of the AUD that was outperforming following RBA minutes. On the other hand, the worst performers were the NZD and the GBP, which slumped after the downside surprise to UK CPI.
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