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US CPI inflation to take a pause after recent gains - ING

FXStreet (Łódź) - Rob Carnell from ING expects soft gasoline and energy prices to curb the rise in inflation in July.

Key quotes

"Any pause in the rise of US headline inflation this month will fit in well with the extremely low Treasury yields that currently prevail."

"But we believe it would be wrong to conclude that recent inflation gains have been a transient factor, and that we are now heading into more benign inflation territory – though such an interpretation would suit the bond bulls."

"Our analysis suggests that the consensus has it about right this month – 0.1% MoM on the headline comes about as somewhat softer core figures (medical cost inflation does seem to have slowed – something the CBO has also noted) offset a generally positive rents story."

"But the big negative this month is gasoline and energy. Without the drag from this, inflation would likely be pushing higher to 2.2%."

"If we were to express a skew to the risks to this consensus forecast, it would be that the headline figure might manage to hold onto 2.1% in July, the same as June. But that is hardly a runaway inflation story."

" So the bond bulls can probably sit this release out in relative comfort this month."

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