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UK July CPI seen slipping to 1.7% - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Prashant Newnaha, Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities expects UK July inflation to slow down to 1.7% on an annual basis.

Key quotes


"The big question for today’s July CPI data is how much pullback we might see after the spike in June which was in turn driven largely by less seasonal discounting than usual on clothing/footwear."

"Last week’s QIR suggests that the BoE expects to see the higher clothing prices as a more permanent feature, as stronger demand leads to less need for discounting, but even if there’s still no reversal on that side in July, we still see CPI slipping 0.2ppts lower to 1.7% Y/Y on base effects, compared to market expectations of 1.8%."

"The BoE had forecast average CPI of 1.8% for Q3, but we think that the bar is pretty low for a downside surprise there. "

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