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What to expect from the RBA minutes? - Westpac

FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpsc, reviews the day ahead, paying special attention to the upcoming RBA's minutes.

Key Quotes

"The minutes from the RBA Board’s August meeting are due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. The brief statement released on the day was extremely similar to July’s yet the Statement on Monetary Policy three days later included a 0.25ppt cut to 2014 and 2015 growth forecasts."

"In the July minutes there was plenty of comment on FX, including pointing out that AUD had risen 8% YTD despite lower bulk commodity prices but with caveats that CAD and NZD had seen similar resilience and “the most surprising development was the continued low level of the US dollar, as well as the resilience of the euro.”

"This implied resignation to AUD overvaluation but the familiar line should be repeated that the “exchange rate remained high by historical standards, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices”. There is probably more potential for AUD movement in Governor Stevens’ testimony tomorrow."

"The Global Dairy Trade auction is due during London trade. The past three auctions have seen large declines in key prices, undermining NZD with both increased supply and weaker Chinese demand playing a role."

"The US data calendar is noteworthy. July CPI is seen up 0.1% m/m, 2.0% y/y total, 0.2% m/m, 1.9% y/y ex-food & energy. This is of course right on the Fed’s unofficial target but it prefers the core PCE deflator, most recently at 1.5% y/y in June. Housing starts slumped -9.3% m/m in June, hence consensus of +8.4% m/m on a series that hasn’t seen a move smaller than 7% since March. An 8% rise would leave overall activity roughly in the middle of the range of the past 18 months, well above 2009-2011 but still less than half of the pre-GFC peaks. Building permits are seen up 2.8% after -3.2% in June."

FOMC BoE minutes later this week - BBH

While we await the RBA minutes, meanwhile, Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that minutes from the recent FOMC and BOE meetings will also be released this week.
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EUR/JPY in need to remove 138.00 - FXStreet

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, EUR/JPY needs to remove 138.00 to start considering an interim bottom in place.
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