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NZD/USD potential upside to 0.86 in 1m – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Kristoffer Lumholt, Analyst at Danske Bank, sees potential for further upside in the short term.

Key Quotes

“Economic figures out of New Zealand have disappointed lately. Q2 inflation was 1.6% y/y, significantly lower than market expectations. In addition, a slowdown in house prices and a recent deterioration in consumer and business confidence could indicate lower growth levels once the construction boom wanes”.

“The RBNZ signalled a pause in interest rate hikes due to the ‘unjustified and unsustainable’ level of the NZD and moderate level of inflation. The market is now pricing a 20% probability of a further rate hike in 2014”.

NZD remains exposed to global risk sentiment and thereby an escalation in the Russian/Ukrainian crisis. El Niño weather later this year could spell trouble for the economy”.

“The recent change of rhetoric from RBNZ has removed the upside potential in NZD/USD. With recent economic figures disappointing and inflation below the midpoint of RBNZ’s 2% midpoint target, we believe RBNZ will stay sidelined for the remainder of 2014”.

“We lower our NZD/USD forecasts to 0.86 (from 0.87), 0.85 (0.87), 0.84 (0.87) and 0.83 (0.87) on one-, three-, six- and 12-month horizons, respectively”.

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