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MPC dissent in August, but outliers not bellwethers - RBS

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS explained that the August Inflation Report prompted the financial markets to almost fully unwind expectations for a November 2014 Bank Rate hike.

Key Quotes:

“The front end of the curve now has rates back below their pre-Mansion House levels. This leaves market pricing more in line with our forecasts (the first 25bp hike in February 2015, with a 25bp-a-quarter pace of tightening during 2015)”.

“Still, there is probably some short-term event risk around the August MPC Minutes, where our forecast is for two dissenting votes for higher Bank Rate. More importantly, however, at this stage we would tend view any hawkish dissenters more as outliers than bellwethers for the rest of the MPC”.

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