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Forex Flash: A short term peak in USD/JPY? - ANZ

There are signs that a (short-term) peak in USD/JPY is likely in place, says Richard Yetsenga, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, who expects "weakness in currencies in Asia, and the AUD, likely to reverse..."

Key factors make him believe that USD/JPY has peaked for now, according to Richard, are: "USD/JPY has moved well beyond any fundamental or valuation measures (such as rate differentials or measures of money supply), suggesting a significant degree of extrapolation in the move, the G20 at the end of the week is likely to see some discussions on currencies, which could make yen shorts nervous, and lastly, daily technicals suggest momentum has turned for now."

For the correction in USD/JPY to gather steam, however, Richard notes one of the following scenarios should materialize: "(a) some genuine and co-ordinated pressure on Japan at this week's G20 meeting - unlikely - , (b) the eventual choices for the soon to be vacant BOJ governor and deputy governor positions will need to disappoint the expectations for radical policy easing that are now priced into USD/JPY - not close enough to the March 19 deadline for this to feature. (c) or, global risk aversion to escalate meaningfully - a full-scale reversal is not expected..."

Forex: AUD/USD capped below 1.0320 on bad Aus housing data

Despite worst decline in housing finance data for Australia since late 2010, last at -1.5% for Dec and previous one revised lower to -0.7% from -0.5%, while most Asian markets closed on holiday, Aussie is still about flat since past Friday's weekly close, last at 1.0320, off session highs at 1.0325. The pair recovers from session lows at 1.0306.
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Forex: EUR/USD faces prospects of 1.3250 decline - Fan Yang

EUR/USD continues to hardly find bids in a low-volatility Asian session, stuck just below 1.3380 former support now turned resistance, and with two consecutive closes below the 20-day EMA, the pair starts this week facing the prospects of "further room to fall toward 1.3270, likely reinforced by a rising trendline going back to Nov. 2012" says Fan Yang, chief technical strategist at FXTimes, and independent analyst at FXstreet.com. According to the analyst, only above 1.35 "will be likely neutralize the recently short-term bearish trend", yet a regain of 1.36 is likely needed "before consideration of a bullish outlook" he adds.
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