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NZD/USD: Testing the 21-D SMA and 25th Nov pivotal low

  • NZD/USD has been pressing on with an improvement in risk sentiment for the North American session.
  • NZD/USD rallied from a low of 0.6727 to a high of 0.6785 and closed New York at 0.6761. 
  • The price action has not dented the bearish technical outlook. 

NZD/USD dropped from a high of 0.6848 to a low of 0.6727 following a surge in the greenback on the 14th January. In recent sessions, we have also seen investors move to the sidelines and seek out safe havens as the threat of Chinese contagion echoes throughout the markets following a poor series of data releases. However, the Chinese verbal intervention and subsequent record stimulus measures lifted spirits, although the PBOC liquidity injections could be seen as an act of desperation. 

"NZD continued to push lower as the focus turns towards next week’s Q4 CPI release (which looks set to flat-line) and the odds of an eventual OCR cut. A weak PMI reading today would add to the recent string of softening forward-looking indicators. And with ongoing global growth concerns at the fore, conditions appear set to remain challenging for kiwi,"

analysts at ANZ Bank argued. 

NZD/USD levels

  • Support 0.6650 
  • Resistance 0.6860

The price was rejected the 200-hr SMA and the doji formed on the 14th Jan has played out with the price closing in the red yet again, well placed below 0.68 the figure. The 50% Fibo is located at 0.6929 but it appears we are now looking at the 21-D SMA where price pierced today at 0.6741 with a confluence of the 25th Nov pivotal low and a break below there will open up 0.6705. A break of the 100-D SMA at 0.6686 with daily closes will sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo.

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