CRUDE OIL PRICES GROW ON OPTIMISTIC GLOBAL FORECAST FROM THE IMF
The single currency shifted moderately today despite the US government resuming work after the three-day shut down. The US dollar benefited from the news but the EUR/USD quotes received a boost from strong macro statistics from Germany, where the economic sentiment index increased to 20.4 in January against 17.4 in the previous month. The same indicator in the Eurozone grew by 2.8 to 31.8. Tomorrow the focus of the market will be on the flash services and manufacturing PMI reports in the US as well as the state of the housing market report which plays a key role in the American economy.
The USD/JPY decreased today after the monetary policy statement from the Bank of Japan, according to which the interest rate remained at -0.1% and the volume of the asset purchasing program was unchanged at nearly 80 trillion yen during the year. Today, traders may be impacted by news on the trade balance in Japan at 23:50 GMT and tomorrow at 00:30 GMT the report on the Japanese manufacturing PMI for January will be released.
The American crude oil benchmark WTI demonstrated positive dynamics on the background of improving IMF forecasts on the global GDP growth to 3.9% for 2018, that is by 0.2% better than the previous estimate. Moreover, the head of the Russian fund of direct investment during his speech in Davos noted that the oil production cut deal will last for many years, which cheered the oil bulls.
The EUR/USD quotes are still consolidating within the limits of the 1.2200-1.2300 range. In case of growth continuing and overcoming the nearest resistance at 1.2300, we may see the price testing the next target levels at 1.2400 and 1.2500. On the other hand, in order to change the trend to negative, quotes need to fix below the support line located at 1.2200.
The USD/JPY has reached the support at 110.30 and in case of breaking through it, the bears may pull the quotes further down to 109.60 and 108.50. The RSI on the 15-minute chart is currently located near the overbought zone which points to a possible upward correction soon with potential targets at 111.00 and above.
The USD/WTI was able to break through the resistance at 64.00 which it was consolidating below previously. The next target in case of increase will be at 65.00. For the trend to change to negative the price will need to break through the local low at 63.00. The potential targets in this case will be 61.00 and 60.00.